Dr Castle studied economics at Durham University, before moving to Nuffield College, Oxford University, where she obtained her PhD in Economics. She was awarded a three year British Academy Postdoctoral Research Fellowship at the Department of Economics and Nuffield College, prior to joining Magdalen College as an Economics Fellow in 2009. She is affiliated to the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School as a Senior Research Fellow in the Economic Modelling Programme.
At the undergraduate level I teach macroeconomics, quantitative economics and econometrics. Tutorials tend to be held in groups of 2-3 students, with some classes for the whole year group. At the graduate level I teach a forecasting course on the Masters in Financial Economics, and I also teach econometrics summer schools focusing on the use of OxMetrics software in econometrics.
My research interests lie in the fields of model selection, forecasting, time-series econometrics and applied macro-economics. I focus on econometric modelling and the use of general-to-specific methodology in modelling economic time series, modelling non-linear economic time series and macro-economic forecasting in theory and practice, with applications including inflation, unemployment and the output gap.
Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This engaging introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, Europe’s economic uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal starting point for students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.