Professor Jennifer Castle

Background

I am a Tutorial Fellow in Economics at Magdalen College, University of Oxford, as well as the Director of Climate Econometrics, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, and a member of the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment.

Teaching

At the undergraduate level I teach probability and statistics, macroeconomics and quantitative economics. Tutorials tend to be held in groups of 2-3 students, with some classes for the whole year group. At the graduate level I teach econometrics summer schools focusing on the use of OxMetrics software in econometrics and forecasting.

Research Interests

My research interests lie in the fields of climate econometrics, model selection and forecasting. My research focuses on econometric modelling and the use of general-to-specific methodology in modelling economic time series, modelling non-linear economic time series and macro-economic forecasting in theory and practice, with applications including inflation, unemployment, the output gap and climate variables.

Selected Publications

• FORECASTING: An Essential Introduction
  
  Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry
  
  Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. This engaging introduction provides an accessible overview of the processes and difficulties of forecasting. Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, Europe’s economic uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal starting point for students, for practitioners new to the field, and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.